Evolutionary-based prediction interval estimation by blending solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological weather types

Weather Radar image Based Forecasting using Joint Series Prediction

Interval-based Solar PV Power Forecasting Using MLP-NSGAII in Niroo Research Institute of Iran

This research aims to predict PV output power by using different neuro-evolutionary methods. The proposed approach was evaluated by a data set, which was collected at 5-minute intervals in the photovoltaic laboratory of Niroo Research Institute of Iran (Tehran). The data has been divided into three intervals based on the amount of solar irradiation, and different neural networks were used for p...

Evaluation of hours - ahead solar forecasting using satellite imagery and 1 Numerical Weather Prediction

Executive Summary 5 A method for solar forecasting using cloud motion vectors (CMV) from satellite imagery with the 6 ability to characterize forecast uncertainty has been developed. On average, the root mean square error 7 (RMSE) for CMV forecast increases with increasing forecast horizon and becomes larger than the North 8 American Model (NAM, a numerical weather prediction model) forecast er...

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models

Operational weather forecasts now allow two week probabilistic forecasts of wave height. This paper discusses methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System. The ECMWF system produces Monte Carlo style forecasts of wave statistics out to a lead time of 10 days. This ensemble of forecasts ...

Solar Radiation Forecasting Model

The prediction of hourly solar radiation data has important consequences in many solar applications (Markvart, Fragaki & Ross, 2006). Such data can be regarded as a time series and its prediction depends on accurate modeling of the stochastic process. The computation of the conditional expectation, which is in general non-linear, requires the knowledge of the high order distribution of the samp...